In this article, we will briefly explore how to effectively profit from Value bets (overpriced odds) in the long term.
What does an overpriced bet (High Value Bet) mean?
These are odds that do not correspond to the true probability of the event’s outcome. To put it more simply with an example: if Team 1 has a 50% chance of winning, the bookmaker should price their victory with odds between 1.9 and 2.0. However, when the odds for this team’s win are 2.4, it means the event is overpriced by 0.4 or 20%. With a 50% chance of success, you get a return on this event significantly higher than those 50%. In the long term, placing single bets on such events leads to a much higher chance of profit.
What is the most effective strategy to guarantee long-term profitability from these bets?
Let’s stick to the example above of an event with a 50% chance and a 20% overvalued odds (2.4). A 50% chance practically means that one out of two similar matches would be a win or a loss, but what would long-term play look like if we bet long-term on overvalued and fair odds? See the comparison tables below:
Betting results over 20 days: comparison between standard and overvalued odds:
🟦 Standard Odds
| Day | Bet | ODD | Result | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ✅ Won | 195,00 EUR |
| Day 2 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ✅ Won | 200,00 EUR |
| Day 3 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 4 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 5 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 6 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 7 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ✅ Won | 200,00 EUR |
| Day 8 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ✅ Won | 200,00 EUR |
| Day 9 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ✅ Won | 200,00 EUR |
| Day 10 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 11 | 100,00 EUR | 1.90 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 12 | 100,00 EUR | 1.90 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 13 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 14 | 100,00 EUR | 1.90 | ✅ Won | 190,00 EUR |
| Day 15 | 100,00 EUR | 1.98 | ✅ Won | 197,50 EUR |
| Day 16 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ✅ Won | 195,00 EUR |
| Day 17 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 18 | 100,00 EUR | 2.00 | ✅ Won | 200,00 EUR |
| Day 19 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ✅ Won | 195,00 EUR |
| Day 20 | 100,00 EUR | 1.95 | ❌ Loss | – |
🟩 Overvalued Odds
| Day | Bet | ODD | Result | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ✅ Won | 234,00 EUR |
| Day 2 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ✅ Won | 240,00 EUR |
| Day 3 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 4 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 5 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 6 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 7 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ✅ Won | 240,00 EUR |
| Day 8 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ✅ Won | 240,00 EUR |
| Day 9 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ✅ Won | 240,00 EUR |
| Day 10 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 11 | 100,00 EUR | 2.28 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 12 | 100,00 EUR | 2.28 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 13 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 14 | 100,00 EUR | 2.28 | ✅ Won | 228,00 EUR |
| Day 15 | 100,00 EUR | 2.37 | ✅ Won | 237,00 EUR |
| Day 16 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ✅ Won | 234,00 EUR |
| Day 17 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ❌ Loss | – |
| Day 18 | 100,00 EUR | 2.40 | ✅ Won | 240,00 EUR |
| Day 19 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ✅ Won | 234,00 EUR |
| Day 20 | 100,00 EUR | 2.34 | ❌ Loss | – |
Summary of the results
| Standard Odds | Overvalued Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Won bets | 10 | 10 |
| Lost bets | 10 | 10 |
| Accuracy | 50% | 50% |
| Total amount bets | 2 000,00 EUR | 2 000,00 EUR |
| Results | 1 972,50 EUR | 2 367,00 EUR |
| Balance | -27,50 EUR (Loss) | +367,00 EUR (Profit) |
⚠️ The predictions we select for our High Value and Multi Value selections typically have a success probability of at least 65–70%, which would further increase our long-term profits.
⚠️ The predictions we select also have at least a 20% markup in the odds compared to the true odds that should be applied based on the probability of the event outcome.
How can we calculate the true odds when we know the markup in the given odds?
Calculating the true odds corresponding to the probability of success is very simple. Here is a formula and an example to help you make your own assessments:
Example:
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker’s odds: 2.25
Mark-up in the odds: 20%
Formula to find the true odds:
- Bookmaker’s odds / 1.(markup) = True odds
- 2.25 / 1.20 = 1.875
- The true odds without markup should be: 1.875
Conclusion: comparison between standard and overvalued odds
For both types of bets (standard and overvalued), the success rate is the same – 50% (10 wins and 10 losses out of 20 bets). The main difference lies in profitability.
With standard odds, the result is a loss of 27.50 EUR despite the same number of winning bets, whereas with overvalued odds, a profit of 367.00 EUR is achieved with the same number of successful bets.
This clearly shows that betting on overvalued (value) odds leads to a positive long-term outcome compared to standard odds. You can follow our recommendations for overvalued events in our Telegram channel or request them directly from the Multi Value plan.
